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EV: China Leads the Way
Rachel MIU, Suvro SARKAR, Pei Hwa HO, Eunyoung Lee, Yiseul Shin 2018.07.12
Future populations are going to pay a high price for today’s rapid economic development. Worsening air pollution in major cities around the globe from the growing car market is triggering a shift from fossil fuel-powered vehicles to electrification. On average, the transport sector across major economies accounts for some 20% of total pollutants released, and this percentage could rise further on the back of rising vehicle ownership. Electrification is a promising solution to address vehicle pollution. The governments of developed nations have plans to phase out or reduce fossil fuel vehicles from 2025 to 2040. China, the world’s largest automobile market (both electric and traditional), is leading E-mobility development with its strong policy and fiscal support. We estimate that by 2030, EVs will account for some 20% of total vehicle sales globally, crossing 26m units, with China accounting for about half of that. With the rise in EVs, approximately 6% of annual oil demand could disappear by 2030. To power EV development, global governments are leaning more on clean energy to support their electrification strategies. The rapid development of China’s EV market has created an exciting value chain, and one of the most complete, when compared to other nations. Several industries stand to benefit from the EV value chain expansion – batteries, auto parts producers, and large EV automakers. Starting in 2018, new EV policies could result in short-term disruption to the EV market, and we anticipate the stronger players will stand out among the crowd. On a long-term investment horizon, we prefer the upstream EV segment. Global EV development is set to substantially boost demand for metals. The anticipated robust EV market outlook has spurred prices of raw materials such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and copper — the key raw materials for lithium batteries, automotive parts and infrastructure network — to hit record levels. Based on the International Copper Association’s estimates, the amount of copper needed to make one battery-electric vehicle (BEV) and hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) is about four times and two times respectively the amount needed for an internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV). Other metals such as advanced high strength steel and aluminium are expected to ride on the EV trend, as these metals are widely used by automakers to reduce the weight of the EVs to enhance battery performance.
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