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연구정보

연구정보

국내외 연구기관에서 발표된 중국 연구 자료를 수집하여 제공합니다.

연구보고서

How Might Sovereign Bond Yields in Asia Pacific React to US Monetary Normalisation under Turbulent Market Conditions?

Tom Fong, Ceara Hui, Alfred Wong 2015-05-13

Abstract 

 

This paper examines the potential impact of US monetary normalisationon sovereign bond yields in Asia Pacific. We apply the quantile vector autoregressive model with principal component analysis to the assessment of tail risk of sovereign debt, which may not be detectable using traditional OLS-based analysis. Our empiricalevidence suggests that US Treasury bond yields can have a significant impact on sovereign bond yields in the region, an important channel through which monetary normalisation by the Fed can affect Asia-Pacific economies. Increases in sovereign bond yields will not only compromise the ability of the sovereignsin the regionto service their debt but also translate into higher costs of borrowingfor the rest of the economy. The results show how much the outsized impact could potentially be if US monetary normalisation somehow turns out to be much more disorderly than expected. 

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