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China’s True Growth Rate: Is It Really 7%?
Hideaki MATSUOKA, Tsuyoshi MINAMI, Kengo TAHARA 2015-10-29
Abstract
- The paper examines China’s announcement of 7% real GDP growth during April–June 2015 in two ways: (1) a recalculation of the GDP deflator and (2) with reference to the Li Keqiang index. As a result, we found that the true growth rate is probably 0.5 to 2.2 points lower than the official figure (as shown in Figure 1).
- Even if government statistics are to be trusted, 1.4 points of the 7% growth in April–June came from the financial sector. Given the Chinese stock market crash, the economy is unlikely to have maintained 7% growth in July–September.
- Contributing to market instability is the dearth of disclosed GDP-related statistics. Chinese authorities need to enhance the transparency of its data.
| 이전글 | China, Inside and Out : A Collection of Essays on Foreign and Domestic Policy in the Xi Jinping Era | 2015-10-29 |
|---|---|---|
| 다음글 | ｢ＳＤＲ通貨｣入りが占う人民元国際化の成否 | 2015-10-29 |
