국내외 연구기관에서 발표된 중국 연구 자료를 수집하여 제공합니다.
Mystery Math: The U.S.-China Phase-1 Purchase Figures Do Not Add Up
Scott Kennedy 2020-03-23
The U.S.-China Phase-1 commercial agreement brought to a close, at least temporarily, a bitter trade war that witnessed a series of tariff hikes and increasingly hostile rhetoric. A central component of the deal is China’s commitment to expand purchases of American goods and services by over $200 billion by 2021, a massive and unprecedented increase in just two years. Although seemingly a major American victory, an examination of the details reveals some serious weaknesses with this part of the deal. The baseline figures appear to be artificial constructs of the negotiating parties, and the growth targets are not realistic – even before the slowdown resulting from the coronavirus outbreak. The purchase agreement has three other problematic elements: its details are secret, implementation will require extensive government micromanagement, and enforcement very well could be arbitrary. The policy community needs to closely monitor this deal and use it as a benchmark to evaluate the Trump administration’s overall approach toward the global trading system.