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[지역] Iran and Saudi Arabia, Geopolitical Rivalries and Confrontation Scenarios

사우디아라비아 / 이란 국외연구자료 학술논문 Sergio I. Moya Mena OASIS 발간일 : 2018-05-18 등록일 : 2018-05-18 원문링크

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The rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran is one of the most significant features of the contemporary Middle East. For many years, these two countries have fought for regional power and influence. This article analyzes this relationship of competition by first, describing the historical background of the relationship between the two countries. Secondly, the paper analyzes the geopolitical factors that shape the rivalry between Saudis and Iranians, and later, the main geographic confrontation scenarios, the rival religious narratives, as well as the economic and military capacities and vulnerabilities of both countries are analyzed. Finally, the article raises a hypothetical consideration of a military conflict between the two countries. The article demonstrates that -so far- the dispute over power and regional influence favors Iran’s interests; however, given the nature of regional and extra-regional alliances, an escalation of the conflict to the military level would not favor the interests of Tehran.

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