아세안

SYNOPSIS

As diplomatic efforts to halt the military operations in Gaza continue, the security implications of displacing so many Palestinian civilians relentlessly can no longer be minimised. As the next-door neighbour, Egypt will face particular challenges going forward. At the same time, Southeast Asia can be affected too. 

COMMENTARY

While Hamas has shown interest in negotiating an Israeli three-phase ceasefire proposal as referred to by US President Joe Biden, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has maintained that the Gaza war would only end once Israel’s objectives were achieved. It has also been reported that the US is considering direct negotiations with Hamas to secure the release of American hostages. On the ground, Israeli military actions in Rafah, the Palestinian city in southern Gaza Strip situated next to the border with Egypt, continue. There is heavy civilian casualties. Many Palestinians in Rafah are at risk of further displacement. According to the latest update, the number of Palestinians who have evacuated Rafah has reached more than 700,000. Beyond the humanitarian crisis, there are security implications for the region depending on where the displaced civilians move to next. There are two scenarios worth monitoring. Scenario 1: Displacement towards Northern Gaza One possible scenario revolves around a plan for civilians to move from Rafah to northern Gaza as Israel has set up a new border crossing at Zikim. This crossing is near the northwestern edge of the Gaza Strip in the sea areas of Beit Lahia. The existing Erez crossing, also known as the Beit Hanoun crossing, is another that is located in northern Gaza and is expected to receive more humanitarian aid supplies. The Israeli media has reported that the Israeli government purchased 40,000 tents from China in anticipation of the Rafah evacuation. Scenario 2: Displacement to New Rafah City in Egypt Another possible scenario is the displacement of Palestinians to the Egyptian New Rafah City, which Egypt has announced is close to completion. New Rafah City is located approximately five km away from Egypt’s border with the Palestinian Gaza Strip. When asked if Egypt would temporarily allow Gaza refugees to enter if there is military action across the border, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said in a press conference, reported by CNN on 21 March 2024, that Egypt will continue to act in the best interests of the Palestinian people.