아프리카ㆍ중동

There have been protracted negotiations in Vienna to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or nuclear deal, that Iran signed in 2015 but was suspended by the withdrawal of the United States four years later. This article argues that two factors account for the failure to renew the JCPOA. One is the 2021 change of presidency in Iran from the reformist Hassan Rouhani to the conservative Ebrahim Raisi. The other is the transformed international environment that provided Iran with opportunities to align with China and Russia. While it suited Iran to continue the nuclear talks to minimize the risk of more punitive actions, Tehran has recalculated its interests and taken a hard line on a potential new deal. The process has grown more complicated with Israel's war in Gaza, the conflict's possible expansion across the region, and the election of a new Iranian president. The analysis concludes that Iran is unlikely to return to the JCPOA.