This article introduces an update to our interactive macro chartbook for China’s 31 provinces.1 New series covering province-level snapshots on property markets, local government finances and regional competitiveness offer a meaningful extension to the existing macroeconomic toolbox.

Five years have passed since our report “China’s provinces: Digging one layer deeper”, and much has happened: China has embarked on a path of economic rebalancing, away from the legacy of an investment boom and towards more

sustainable growth. The changes that come with this shift hold implications for all provinces, but the challenges may look quite different in steel-producing Hebei than in real-estate-reliant Hainan. Perhaps not surprisingly, we find the provinces in the northeastern “rust belt” are most exposed to the current China slowdown.

Provincial finances are at the root of China’s fiscal risks, stemming from an overreliance on local governments’ income from land sales and a mismatch between local responsibilities for managing revenues and expenditures. Recent measures to expand local government bond financing are a positive step towards reducing fiscal risks and accumulation of debt at the local level. 
Property markets are feeling the squeeze across China, as prices have come under pressure, and property sales and investment have slowed or declined, particularly in the northeastern provinces. But the diversity of local markets is

huge and so are the chances to adequately respond to the sector’s problems.

Finally, China’s ambitions to expand cross-border trade and investment via the “new silk road” should benefit provinces at the western and southwestern borders more than others. However, convergence of the living standards in some of these provinces to those in the richer ones still has a long way to go