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연구보고서
Assessing Default Risks for Chinese Firms : A Lost Cause?
Daniel Law, Shaun K. Roache 2015-06-29
Assessing default risks for Chinese firms is hard. Standard measures of risk using market indicators may be unreliable because of implicit guarantees, the large role played by lessinformed investors, and other market imperfections. We test this assertion by estimating stand-alone 1-year default probabilities for non-financial firms in China using an equitybased structural model and debt costs. We find evidence that the equity measure of default risk is sensitive to a firm’s balance sheet health, profitability, and ownership; specifically, default probabilities are higher for weaker, less profitable, and state-owned firms. In contrast, measures based on the cost of debt seem largely detached from fundamentals and instead determined by implicit guarantees. We conclude that for individual firms, equitybased measures, while far from perfect, provide a better measure of stand-alone default risks than borrowing cost.
이전글 | 중국정부의 경기활성화정책-763계획 | 2015-06-29 |
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다음글 | Global Value Chains along the New Silk Road | 2015-06-29 |