Abstract

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While the People’s liberation Army continues to build anti-access/area denial capabilities to deter or delay a U.S. military response to a potential conflict with China, Beijing also appears to be pursuing other options—including nonmilitary options prior to a conflict—likely intended to erode the United States’ strategic position, freedom of action, and operational space in the Asia Pacific. The nonmilitary options being pursued include engagement, coercion, and alliance splitting focused on U.S. allies and partners in the Asia Pacific region. Although Beijing’s attempts to limit U.S. force projection capabilities in Asia through these efforts have produced mixed results, there is little indication Beijing will abandon its efforts to mitigate the U.S. military presence in the region.

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Contents

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Executive Summary....................................................................................................................................................3
Background: China’s Security Environment and Threat Perception..........................................................................3
Environment Shaping: Engagement, Coercion, and Alliance Splitting .....................................................................5
Current Challenges.....................................................................................................................................................8
Opportunities Prevent Erosion of U.S. Influence and Access in the Asia Pacific....................................................11
Endnotes...................................................................................................................................................................12​​