[중국어] 금융주기와 금융파동이 경제성장과 금융안정에 어떤 영향을 미치는가?

Abstract

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Based on dynamic panel data of 68 major economies over the period of 1981-2012, this paper investigates the impact of financial cycle and financial volatility on economic growth and financial stability. The empirical results show that the boom and recession phases of the financial cycle are often associated with lower economic growth and higher probability of financial crisis. By comparison, in the normal phase of the financial cycle, economic growth is higher and the financial system is more stable. This indicates that both the overheating and overcooling of the financial system is harmful to economic growth and financial stability, and the reverse is true vice versa. In addition, no matter what phases the financial cycle is in, larger financial volatility is always associated with lower economic growth and higher probability of financial crisis, suggesting that the increase in financial volatility is harmful to both economic growth and financial stability.​