Abstract

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The South Asia subregion presents a moderate overall risk within the strategic context of the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Two key issues take precedent: 1) the standing risk of armed conflict between the nuclear-armed forces of India and Pakistan, and 2) India’s potential to emerge as a dominant regional sea-air power, as well as a rival of China’s in both military and economic terms, in light of Chinese military and economic expansion into the region.
Currently, the risk of a major Indo-Pakistani armed conflict seems low, but the potential for minor border clashes and terrorist attacks remains high. Tensions persist between the two countries, which have fought four wars since their partition in 1947. Small arms, artillery, and mortar fire along the line of control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir are not uncommon and were especially prevalent during the second half of the summer of 2015. [i] The frequency of these armed exchanges indicates that the risk of a sudden major crisis, followed by the potential for escalation to a serious conflict, cannot be disregarded, especially when viewed in the context of the 1999 Kargil War....​