Abstract

China’s economy continues to make global headlines, with each uptick or downtick in GDP growth, industrial output, retail sales, or other measure pored over like tea leaves for what it portends. Meanwhile, China’s consumers keep spending, albeit a bit slower at the moment, and consumption growth is still on a staggering trajectory. China’s consumer economy is expected to expand by about half, to $6.5 trillion, by 2020—even if annual real GDP growth cools to 5.5%, which is below the official target. The incremental growth of $2.3 trillion over the next five years would be comparable to the world’s adding a consumer market 1.3 times the size of today’s Germany or UK.