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The impact of US tariffs against China on US imports: evidence for trade diversion?
Cigna, Simone, Meinen, Philipp, Schulte, Patrick, Steinhoff, Nils 2021-01-11
In this paper we provide evidence on the existence of short-run trade diversion effects towards third countries as a consequence of tariff shocks. We exploit sudden policy changes in the context of the trade dispute between the US and China. Based on a data set covering monthly product-level information on US imports from 30 countries for the period January 2016 until May 2019, we employ a difference-in-differences estimation framework. Doing so, we (1) can confirm previous findings showing a strong negative direct effect of US tariffs on US imports from China, but (2) do not find evidence for significant short-run trade diversion effects towards third countries. This latter finding holds for product and country subgroups as well as for a variety of robustness checks.
※2020년 12월 15일 발간된 2503번 보고서를 확인하세요
| 이전글 | 2021년 중국 경제전망 | 2021-01-11 |
|---|---|---|
| 다음글 | Research on the Relationship between China’s Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market | 2021-01-08 |
