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What 31 provinces reveal about growth in China
Eeva Kerola, Benoit Mojon 2021-02-02
It is important to understand the growth process under way in China. However, analyses of Chinese growth became increasingly more difficult after the real GDP doubling target was announced in 2012 and the official real GDP statistics lost their fluctuations. With a dataset covering 31 Chinese provinces from two decades, we have substantially more variation to work with. We find robust evidence that the richness of the provincial data provides information relevant to understand and project Chinese aggregates. Using this provincial data, we build an alternative indicator for Chinese growth that is able to reveal fluctuations not present in the official statistical series. Additionally, we concentrate on the determinants of Chinese growth and show how the drivers have gone through a substantial change over time both across economic variables and provinces. We introduce a method to understand the changing nature of Chinese growth that can be updated regularly using principal components derived from the provincial data.
이전글 | 城市的力量:农民工层级迁移与工资溢价 | 2021-02-02 |
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다음글 | 竞争中性的国际规制演进与中国因应策略——以美欧互诉“民用大飞机补贴案”为参照 | 2021-02-01 |