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China’s Three Roads to Controlling Taiwan
Dan Blumenthal, Frederick W. Kagan 2023-04-04
China seeks to gain full control of Taiwan through three distinct but interrelated campaigns: forceful persuasion, coercion, and compellence.
American policy’s focus on compellence marginalizes strategies that counter China’s persuasion and coercion campaigns.
China is more likely to achieve its goals through persuasion and coercion or a form of compellence, such as a blockade of the island, short of an amphibious invasion.
The US must urgently rethink its defense of Taiwan so that it blocks all three roads to Chinese victory.
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