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China’s (Rough) Economic Trajectory to 2050
Derek Scissors 2023-04-19
Since the Chinese economy has matured and the policy trend is established, long-term forecasting should be more accurate. It’s still imprecise, of course, and vulnerable to any sharp domestic change.
The COVID-19 pandemic and recovery interrupted an economic slowdown that began in 2011 and will resume in 2024–25. China will still outperform in the 2020s, but its trajectory will be unmistakable by the end of the decade.
The 2030s will be worse. Aging will be the principal reason, augmented by a large debt burden and (unless lifted) self-imposed constraints on innovation. In the 2040s, these factors will effectively bring growth to a halt.
| 이전글 | China’s 2023 work report and what it means: an AI post-mortem | 2023-04-19 |
|---|---|---|
| 다음글 | Derisking Real Estate in China’s Hybrid Economy | 2023-04-19 |
