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연구정보

연구정보

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연구보고서

Who wins from US debt default? China.

Marcus Noland 2023-05-23

As the US stumbles toward a possible debt default, the economic risks are clear. In the worst case, it could set off a global financial conflagration, given the role of US Treasury bonds as the risk-free anchor of a vast network of global financial transactions. Even a last-minute avoidance of default could result in a downgrading of US debt and upward pressure on US interest rates, further stressing an already fragile banking system.

But an additional, and possibly underappreciated, reason to avoid default would be its deleterious impact on the US dollar's key currency role and America's standing in the world broadly and vis-à-vis China.

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