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China’s Economy Ahead of the Third Plenum: The End of the “China Miracle”?
Bert Hofman 2023-10-17
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China’s disappointing second-quarter economic numbers have triggered a widespread debate about the country’s economic future. GDP growth came in at a respectable 3.2% annualized growth rate. However, for some analysts, the property sector's lackluster private investment, faltering exports, and declining prices signaled that China’s economic model was running out of steam. Observers used terms such as “the end of China’s miracle,” “a lost decade,” “Japanification,” and “a balance sheet recession” to describe the country’s current predicament.1 By contrast, some domestic observers argued that the current economic situation is a necessary side effect of the country's transition to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s new development model, which would aim to drive growth through innovation and output in emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles.2 Others noted that China’s economy is doing much better than those of many Western countries, and saw a conspiracy in the negative reporting rather than problems in China’s economy.3 Some Chinese economists argued that the overall trend is negative and that the country needs to address it.4
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다음글 | Reluctant entrepreneurs: Evidence from China’s state-controlled enterprise reform | 2023-10-17 |