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US-China detente likely to remain elusive in 2024
Paul Heer, Chicago Council on Global Affairs 2024-01-17
Despite the positive atmospherics of the November 2023 summit in California between Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping, it remains unclear whether any momentum has been generated toward a substantial relaxation of bilateral tensions over the coming year.
Although the summit produced agreement on several tactical bilateral issues, the fundamental sources of friction and mistrust between the two sides were not substantially addressed. As a result, the relationship is not well-insulated against unforeseen events like the Chinese spy balloon episode of February 2023—which derailed the supposed positive momentum of Biden and Xi’s previous summit (in Bali in November 2022). Given the multiple sources of volatility in the relationship, a similar dynamic is likely in 2024.
Previous fault lines reappeared within weeks of the California summit. In an early December 2023 phone conversation between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Blinken reaffirmed the ‘importance of building upon the progress’ made at the meeting. Wang highlighted the need to ‘deliver on the consensus reached by the two heads of state’.” But there was little clarity on the substance of that consensus.
Meanwhile, also in early December 2023, United States Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo declared at a conference that ‘China is not our friend’ and is instead ‘the biggest threat we’ve ever had’. This essentially reverted to pre-summit Biden administration rhetoric that focused on the competitive challenge Beijing poses instead of the opportunities for cooperation it presents.
Domestic politics in both countries are also likely to hinder any relaxation of bilateral tensions. Xi’s domination of decision-making in a strongly nationalist China is not conducive to Beijing’s acquiescence to Washington’s preferred terms of engagement. And Biden’s vulnerability to being labelled ‘soft’ on China, as he pursues re-election, makes it unlikely that he will advocate any substantial accommodation to Beijing’s terms.
| 이전글 | 中国式现代化是走和平发展道路的现代化 | 2024-01-18 |
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| 다음글 | 5 Issues to Watch in 2024 | 2024-01-17 |
