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연구보고서

Get Ready for Trump Trade Wars 2.0

Keith Johnson 2024-05-14

With Donald Trump the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, with a fair chance of securing victory in November, all eyes are turning again to his plans for trade policy, one of his pet subjects.

As disruptive and arguably ineffective as Trump’s policies were during his one term in office, including costly trade wars with China and Europe and the final death knell to global trade rules, he is promising much more a second time around.

Trump has floated the idea of a 10 percent tax on all imports from all countries as well as a tax of as much as 60 percent on everything that comes from China. Former Trump trade officials have spoken of intensifying the Biden administration’s limits on technology exports to China and seem keen to move beyond de-risking economic ties with Beijing toward a full decoupling.

“Look back at the first term—he did what he signaled he would do,” said Stephen Vaughn, an international trade lawyer at King & Spalding law firm in Washington and a former trade official in the Trump administration. “I think people should take him seriously when he talks about what he is going to do.”

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