연구정보
Home 연구정보
국내외 연구기관에서 발표된 중국 연구 자료를 수집하여 제공합니다.
연구보고서
China’s Path to Sustainable and Balanced Growth
Dirk V Muir,Natalija Novta,Anne Oeking 2024-12-04
국내외 주요 기관에서 발표하는 자료들을 수집하여 제공하고 있습니다. 수록 자료의 자세한 내용은 해당 기관으로 문의하시기 바랍니다.
After decades of high growth, the Chinese economy is facing headwinds from slowing productivity growth and a declining workforce that are projected to lower potential growth substantially in the longer term. We project China’s potential growth over the medium to long term, showing that potential growth could slow to around 3.8 percent on average between 2025-30 and to around 2.8 percent on average over 2031-40 in the absence of major reforms. We present a reform scenario with structural reforms to lift productivity growth and rebalancing China’s growth towards more consumption, that would help China transition to “high-quality”―balanced, inclusive, and green―growth. We use production function and general equilibrium modelling approaches to show that potential growth could remain at around 4.3 percent between 2025-40 under the reform scenario.
이전글 | 애플 R&D센터, 중국 허타오 선전-홍콩 과학기술혁신협력구에 설립 | 2024-12-04 |
---|---|---|
다음글 | 미국의 포괄적 경제안보 조치에 따른 향후 전망과 산업정책 과제 -대중국 실물, 금융분야 제한 조치 확장과 보완을 중심으로 | 2024-12-04 |