1. Outlook for U.S. National Security Strategy 

2. Outlook for China Policy

3. Korea’s Policy

Outlook for U.S. National Security Strategy 

The grand strategy of the incoming Trump administration will be the strategy of selective engagement, which is the internationalist strategy that maintains engagement selectively in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East to keep U.S. leadership and regional stability. Despite the concerns about isolationism, the basic direction of American national security strategy will not change.

Trump's strategic inclination seems to be close to the strategy of offshore balancing. During his first term, he argued that the United States had to withdraw from Europe, where serious threats were deemed absent, and maintain a minimal engagement in the Middle East while strengthening its engagement in Asia to balance China, the greatest threat. After that, the feasibility of withdrawing from NATO has been reassessed. And during the presidential election campaign, the Trump camp made it clear that engagement in Europe would be kept. Trump himself stated publicly that the United States would remain “100 percent” committed to NATO as long as its members acted fairly. Even the “America First” faction of the Trump camp agrees on the necessity of the strategy of engagement including Europe. And traditionalists such as Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor nominee Michael Waltz are likely to play significant roles in maintaining internationalist engagement.

The basic aim of the strategy of selective engagement strategy is to sustain U.S. preeminence while maintaining favorable balance of power in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. This strategy is based on the assessments that although the United States remains the sole superpower in the international system, it has lost its once unparalleled dominance and has been experiencing a decline in relative position. Thus, the basic courses of action of the second Trump administration would be rebuilding economic strength, maintaining military superiority, and strengthening alliances.

Asia will be the priority area in the second Trump administration’s national security strategy, with the rise of China as a near-peer competitor that poses the most fatal threat to the United States. Therefore, the United States will concentrate its resources on Asia to counter China. Meanwhile, it will keep the current levels, or somewhat lower levels, of engagement in Europe and the Middle East while avoiding direct military intervention as far as possible.

One of the important characteristics of the second Trump administration’s national security strategy will be restraint. Trump and his team have vocally criticized past administrations for engaging in costly conflicts driven by arrogant ideological goals, arguing that such actions drained U.S. resources and distracted from the strategic challenge posed by China. To shift focus back to China and reduce costs, the second Trump administration would apply rigorous standards for military intervention and seek to terminate ongoing conflicts. This approach will likely manifest in Europe as efforts to end the Ukrainian War. In the Middle East, while providing unequivocal support for Israel, it is likely that the administration would quietly induce Israel to end its war with Hamas early. In these two regions, the Trump administration will likely use alliances and diplomacy to contain Russia and Iran while maintaining the current levels of military presence. 

Under the second Trump administration, the United States would continue to play its leadership role in global affairs. However, its leadership would exhibit a more unilateral and selfish character. Trump has inclination to understand international relations from transactional perspective. And advocates of the "America First" policy have criticized previous administrations for making excessive concessions to uphold the international order and alliances and for sacrificing U.S. sovereignty and national interests in international institutions. Therefore, the second Trump administration will be strongly inclined to prioritize national interests over the provision of international public goods.